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Who WON'T win the chase

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Smokeshow14

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Post Tue Sep 18, 2012 11:35 pm

Who WON'T win the chase

I have done a process of elimination. This is clearly for entertainment purposes only.

Jeff Gordon is 47 points out of first and 21 points behind Matt Kenseth. Put a fork in him. He is done. Too far back.

Matt Kenseth is NOT a lame duck. But he is already 26 pints back. That isn't too much to make up. But a fork in him too that team has been sliding. He is done. May get to the top five though.

Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr have not been real factors the whole year. Mainly Harvick though he has had his moments. I love Happy. But it isnt his year. Truex Jr looks solid. But not good enough to win a championship. They never had a chance.

Greg Biffle disappointed at Chicagoland. He is always tooting his horn about how his team is the best on the 1.5 mile tracks. Not Sunday. Has never won a title. He hasn't been running good since his win at Michigan. He is done.

Dale Jr ran a great race Sunday. For him to be mad at a top ten shows how good of a team he has right now and how good his cars are. He has been the most consistent driver this whole season. Still very much in it to win it.

Clint Bowyer has been solid and has won two races. But solid isn't good enough to win the championship. He isn't going to win.

Kasey Kahne has been fast. But not consistent. I like the guy. But him and the word championship contender just don't go together. No chance.

Denny Hamlin has lacked consistency this year. He hasn't put together more than two top tens in a row. He will win a championship one day. But not this year.

Tony Stewart is where he needs to be.

Jimmie Johnson may whine about Brad Keselowski, but he is also where he needs to be.

Brad Keselowski is still inexperienced. Only Sr and Gordon have won a championship in their first three seasons in Cup. Brad is good. But he is no Gordon or Sr. He will be strong. But won't win.

So by this process of elimination either Jr, Smoke or Johnson will win it.
Cup: 14, 1, 29, 88, 99, 11, 17, 39, 15, 5, 2, 16
NW: 7, 31, 3, 11, 60, 88, 12
Trucks: 9, 88, 3, 7, 17, 31
IRL: 10, 11, 12, 26, 3, 38, 27
RIP Dan Wheldon
"Fight for Four"- Annalee
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HTower

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Post Wed Sep 19, 2012 12:12 am

Re: Who WON'T win the chase

You're jumping the gun ruling 9 out of the 12 drivers as being unable to win. How many drivers did you rule out for inconsistency? 3 or 4? Tony won 3 races this year, but came in 10th place in points. He had 9 races where he finished 21st place or much worse. That is practically the definition of inconsistency! The "inconsistent Kahne" only had 7 finishes that bad, and 4 of them were before April 2nd, very early in the year.

But if you're looking to rule out drivers who "can't" win the Chase, :roll: you can remove Junior. Only 1 win this year, and we all learned last year that you have to win races to win the championship.
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Smokeshow14

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Post Wed Sep 19, 2012 12:42 am

Re: Who WON'T win the chase

In history of the chase, on average it has been two to three drivers that had a realistic shot at Homestead. So it is only logical to say that there are only three drivers that can win the championship.

Tony is different. He is the only driver that it doesn't matter what he did in the regular season. He showed Sunday why that is.

Kahne is still inconsistent. He has two good races and then two bad races as of late (good runs at Michigan and Bristol, bad runs at Atlanta and RIR all tracks except for Bristol that he has won at). He is not a championship contender.

Jr has been a model for consistency this year. If this chase does not come down to wins. But who has the best average finish. He will probably win.
Cup: 14, 1, 29, 88, 99, 11, 17, 39, 15, 5, 2, 16
NW: 7, 31, 3, 11, 60, 88, 12
Trucks: 9, 88, 3, 7, 17, 31
IRL: 10, 11, 12, 26, 3, 38, 27
RIP Dan Wheldon
"Fight for Four"- Annalee
You got to have a big gigantic drum kit.
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HTower

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Post Wed Sep 19, 2012 12:47 am

Re: Who WON'T win the chase

Smokeshow14 wrote:In history of the chase, on average it has been two to three drivers that had a realistic shot at Homestead. So it is only logical to say that there are only three drivers that can win the championship.


Yes, once we get to Homestead only 2 or 3 drivers may have a realistic shot at winning the Championship, but with 9 races to go, not 1, it is crazy to rule out 75% of the field.
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Smokeshow14

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Post Wed Sep 19, 2012 1:10 am

Re: Who WON'T win the chase

Not really. It just isn't as obvious this year. In 2007 we all knew it was going to be between Gordon and Johnson. 2008 we all knew it was Johnson or Edwards. It's my process of elimination. I will ask you this. Do you honestly think that Jeff Gordon, Martin Truex Jr, Clint Bowyer, Kasey Kahne, and Greg Biffle can win the championship this year? Probably not. That eliminates half of the field right there.

Of course I could be wrong. But I think that the title will come from one of those three drivers. And being that only Tony and JJ have won the last seven championships that looks good. The one driver that could make the look wrong is Denny Hamlin. I am tempted to say he could still win. But he has been hot and cold this year and seems to already feel he is behind the 8 ball.
Cup: 14, 1, 29, 88, 99, 11, 17, 39, 15, 5, 2, 16
NW: 7, 31, 3, 11, 60, 88, 12
Trucks: 9, 88, 3, 7, 17, 31
IRL: 10, 11, 12, 26, 3, 38, 27
RIP Dan Wheldon
"Fight for Four"- Annalee
You got to have a big gigantic drum kit.
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tonysgirl14

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Post Wed Sep 19, 2012 1:30 am

Re: Who WON'T win the chase

It is either going to be Tony or JIMMY BUT HOPE IT IS TONY GOOD LUCK
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Schmoopy1000

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Post Wed Sep 19, 2012 2:30 am

Re: Who WON'T win the chase

Using SS14's way of figuring things out.
Tony has no chance to win the title this year. (barring favortism)
So I guess SS14 is saying it is either Brad or JJ that will win the championship (after only one race)
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Smokeshow14

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Post Wed Sep 19, 2012 2:56 am

Re: Who WON'T win the chase

Schmoopy1000 wrote:Using SS14's way of figuring things out.
Tony has no chance to win the title this year. (barring favortism)
So I guess SS14 is saying it is either Brad or JJ that will win the championship (after only one race)

Now how did you figure that?

I gave my reasons. Now give me your reasons why you think I am wrong instead of a comment like that.
Cup: 14, 1, 29, 88, 99, 11, 17, 39, 15, 5, 2, 16
NW: 7, 31, 3, 11, 60, 88, 12
Trucks: 9, 88, 3, 7, 17, 31
IRL: 10, 11, 12, 26, 3, 38, 27
RIP Dan Wheldon
"Fight for Four"- Annalee
You got to have a big gigantic drum kit.
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michaeljohn

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Post Wed Sep 19, 2012 3:14 am

Re: Who WON'T win the chase

denny was more consistent than tony in the 26 races, funny how you dismiss him just after one race.
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Smokeshow14

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Post Wed Sep 19, 2012 3:15 am

Re: Who WON'T win the chase

Actually Tony strung together more than two straight top tens. But he did have those four races where what could happen happened. Like I said, what Tony does in the regular season really does not matter. He showed that last year and last weekend. And he has the championship experience.

I just don't see Hamlin winning it this year. Didn't think this would get people so riled up.
Cup: 14, 1, 29, 88, 99, 11, 17, 39, 15, 5, 2, 16
NW: 7, 31, 3, 11, 60, 88, 12
Trucks: 9, 88, 3, 7, 17, 31
IRL: 10, 11, 12, 26, 3, 38, 27
RIP Dan Wheldon
"Fight for Four"- Annalee
You got to have a big gigantic drum kit.
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jamo14

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Post Wed Sep 19, 2012 7:41 am

Re: Who WON'T win the chase

Out of all the drivers out there, I truly believe only 12 of them have a shot to win the cup after 1 Chase race (and I can prove it).
Do something with your life and go get me a beer.

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austin024

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Post Wed Sep 19, 2012 7:56 am

Re: Who WON'T win the chase

Smokeshow14 wrote:I have done a process of elimination. This is clearly for entertainment purposes only.

Jeff Gordon is 47 points out of first and 21 points behind Matt Kenseth. Put a fork in him. He is done. Too far back.

Matt Kenseth is NOT a lame duck. But he is already 26 pints back. That isn't too much to make up. But a fork in him too that team has been sliding. He is done. May get to the top five though.

Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr have not been real factors the whole year. Mainly Harvick though he has had his moments. I love Happy. But it isnt his year. Truex Jr looks solid. But not good enough to win a championship. They never had a chance.

Greg Biffle disappointed at Chicagoland. He is always tooting his horn about how his team is the best on the 1.5 mile tracks. Not Sunday. Has never won a title. He hasn't been running good since his win at Michigan. He is done.

Dale Jr ran a great race Sunday. For him to be mad at a top ten shows how good of a team he has right now and how good his cars are. He has been the most consistent driver this whole season. Still very much in it to win it.

Clint Bowyer has been solid and has won two races. But solid isn't good enough to win the championship. He isn't going to win.

Kasey Kahne has been fast. But not consistent. I like the guy. But him and the word championship contender just don't go together. No chance.

Denny Hamlin has lacked consistency this year. He hasn't put together more than two top tens in a row. He will win a championship one day. But not this year.

Tony Stewart is where he needs to be.

Jimmie Johnson may whine about Brad Keselowski, but he is also where he needs to be.

Brad Keselowski is still inexperienced. Only Sr and Gordon have won a championship in their first three seasons in Cup. Brad is good. But he is no Gordon or Sr. He will be strong. But won't win.

So by this process of elimination either Jr, Smoke or Johnson will win it.




So your gonna rule out someone who is 47 points out? Had 3 straight top 3 finishes heading into the chase. Great cars all year long, Just real bad luck, No reason he cant make 47 points over a 9 race span. Thats 5.2 points per race. Jeff at one point in Richmond was 47 points behind, But finished 2 or 3 points ahead of Kyle to take the final wildcard.



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ndunn

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Post Wed Sep 19, 2012 11:38 am

Re: Who WON'T win the chase

jamo14 wrote:Out of all the drivers out there, I truly believe only 12 of them have a shot to win the cup after 1 Chase race (and I can prove it).


My kind of math Jamo.....I don't think I'd make any kind of bet at this point in the chase. Jeff had a serious set back that had nothing to do with his driving. So my thoughts say he is going to bust his rear end to get back in contention. If Jeff has the car he surely has the drive to get the five so he can at least stand with Jimmie in number of championships. I think Kenseth has been shoved to the end of the line in Roush because he is leaving. There is no way he'll get the help to be a championship. As for the rest of the guys because of the high drama of last year everyone has the believe they can win. And why shouldn't they? No one has any more reason to win than anyone else. There are several that have never tasted championship and they all believe this is the year. After all it's "racin".
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Smoke14Wins

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Post Wed Sep 19, 2012 1:10 pm

Re: Who WON'T win the chase

If Jr wins the championship, the world will declare it a national holiday.
I can't see a new spot being added to the calendar any time soon.
Last edited by Smoke14Wins on Wed Sep 19, 2012 1:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Smoke14Wins

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Post Wed Sep 19, 2012 1:40 pm

Re: Who WON'T win the chase

Of the races that are left to run, not counting Homestead, here's earlier race results
(Homestead not included because only race once a yr on)

Loudon
1st Kahne
2nd. Hamlin
3rd Bowyer
4th Jr
5th Keselowski
6th Gordon
7th Johnson
8th Harvick
9th Biffle
11th Truex Jr
12th Stewart
13th Kenseth

Dover
1st Johnson
2nd Harvick
3rd Kenseth
4th Jr
5th Bowyer
7th Truex Jr
9th Kahne
11th Biffle
12th Keselowski
13th Gordon
18th Hamlin
25th Stewart

Talladega
1st. Keselowski
3rd Kenseth
4th Kahne
5th Biffle
6th Bowyer
9th Jr
23rd Hamlin
24th Stewart
25th Harvice (accident)
28th Truex Jr (accident)
33 Gordon (accident)
35th Johnson (engine)

Charlotte
1st. Kahne
2nd Hamlin
4th Biffle
5th Keselowski
6th Jr
7th Gordon
8th Harvick
10th Kenseth
11th Johnson
12th Truex Jr
13th Bowyer
25th Stewart

Kansas
1st Hamlin
2nd. Truex Jr
3rd Johnson
4th Kenseth
5th Biffle
6th Harvick
7th Jr
8th Kahne
11th Keselowski
13th Stewart
21st Gordon
36th Bowyer (engine)

Martinsville
3rd Jr
4th Kenseth
5th Truex Jr
6th Hamlin
7th Stewart
9th Keselowski
10th Bowyer
12th Johnson
13th Biffle
14th Gordon
19th Harvick
38th Kahne (engine)

Texas
1st Biffle
2nd Johnson
4th Gordon
5th Kenseth
6th Truex Jr
7th Kahne
9th Harvick
10th Jr
12th Hamlin
17th Bowyer
24th Stewart
36th Keselowski

Phoenix
1st Hamlin
2nd Harvick
3rd Biffle
4th Johnson
5th Keselowski
7th Truex Jr
8th Gordon
13th Kenseth
14th Jr
22nd Stewart
30th Bowyer
34th Kahne

I should add the first chase race in here as well
Chicago

1st. Keselowski
2nd Johnson
3rd Kahne
6th Stewart
8th Jr
9th Truex Jr
10th Bowyer
12th Harvick
13th Biffle
16th Hamlin
18th Kenseth
35th Gordon (accident)
Last edited by Smoke14Wins on Wed Sep 19, 2012 3:28 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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