"Even with Denny missing over a month he finished 23rd, & Tony who missed 15 races, was 29th. There is only like 27 or 28 full time major(ish) teams in Nascar."
That's was in yrs past as I believe that's changed this yr with so many low funded teams finding speed & running well finishing the entire race & some with good results? Even the Nascar guys have stated we haven't saw hardly any S&P drivers drop out after a few laps as in yrs past? Besides look where the majority of SHR drivers are in points as 3 of them are out of the top 20 already and 2 of them ARE winning drivers this yr? Iam just saying from what we are seeing this yr anything is possible, esp if ENOUGH trouble finds a winning driver? However, the odds of a driver good enough to win yet not make top 30 after 26 races may be highly unlikely-- but not impossible--just saying?
"The Chase is dumb anyways in any format"
years past? this was last year. you know 9 races ago!
ok so lets look aat this year.
Danica who has beeen horrible is 29th in points, but 20 (half a race) ahead of 30th.
you have 2 drivers who some might say are over acheiving right now. Mears & Allgaier, but for your side of the argument, lets say they dont fall off, & teams are much improved. still makes only 29 teams.
30th is gilliland in a front row car
31st is Reed in a tommy baldwin car
32nd is Ragan front row
33rd is Cole Whitt Swan Racing
34th is Annett in Tommy Baldwin
35th is Bowman BK Racing
36th is Wise in Phil Parsons Racing
37th is Kvapil in FAS Lane racing
38th is Parker Klingerman in Swan Racing
39th is Ryan Truex in BK Racing
also will point out only 35 drivers has started every race this season.
So yes I guess if Kurt or Harvick missed 25 races they could fall out of the top 30 in points so you are correct. It isnt imposssible. True the start & parkers may actually be racing now, but it is still for the same positions. Danica Patrick could struggle the whole season & stay in the top 30 in points. So say she gets lucky & wins a plate race, she would be in the chase! So I will rephrase & say. "virtually impossible to be more precise. Although I will say barring injury/losing ride completely impossible for the winner to fall out of the top 30 if you are one of the major(ish) teams.